Edmonton consumers to feel the pinch as Canada-U.S. trade war escalates, experts warn
Two residents in an Edmonton neighbourhood stage a small-scale protest against escalating tariffs, holding signs that highlight the financial strain on local communities and call for national solidarity. Photo by Jana Al-Awar / Edmonton Edge.
Consumers on both sides of the border will be the first to feel the negative effects of the escalating trade war between Canada and the United States, according to a leading economics professor.
Constantin Colonescu, an associate professor of economics at MacEwan University, warns that tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Canadian products, and Canada’s retaliatory tariffs, could drive up costs for everyday goods and put the economy on a rocky path.
“The first to feel the negative effects of this trade war are us consumers,” Colonescu said.
“We already see inflation picking up, both in the United States and Canada, and we should expect, if not a recession, at least a slowdown in economic growth below two per cent. Many people are likely to lose their jobs if this situation persists.”
Tariffs poised to affect multiple industries
The tariffs, which target key Canadian industries such as steel, aluminum, and agriculture, are also expected to significantly impact the lumber and automotive sectors.
The escalating dispute comes despite the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), the free trade deal that replaced the North American Free Trade Aagreement in 2020. Championed by the then-U.S. president Donald Trump, CUSMA was designed to modernize trade relations and reduce barriers between the three countries.
Yet the current trade tensions suggest that even formal agreements cannot shield critical sectors from protectionist policies.
Colonescu said that while oil and gas producers face lower tariffs, which is around 10 per cent, other industries are far more vulnerable. “Pretty much everything else is going to be affected, especially the lumber-producing industry,” he said. “Manufacturing industries in Ontario, particularly car producers, will also be hit.”
As these industries grapple with increased costs, Edmonton consumers are likely to bear the brunt of rising prices. Many everyday products–including food, household items, and building materials–are imported from the United States, leaving local consumers vulnerable to inflation.
Laura Carpenter, who works at Safeway, told the Edmonton Edge, that rising costs will likely continue, potentially leading to job losses due to Canada’s limited manufacturing capacity.
“There aren’t enough people here that make stuff,” she said. While Canada has the raw materials to produce many goods, she pointed out that “we don’t have the ability to make this stuff,” which increases reliance on imports and drives up prices.
Joseph Doarth, a recent graduate, shared similar concerns, noting that higher costs could make it even harder for young people to secure jobs.
“I’m mainly concerned about what this trade war means for [us] young people and future graduates. Even when I graduated back in 2018, it took me months to find a job. I can’t imagine how hard it will be now with everything so uncertain,” he said.
Colonescu underscored these worries, emphasizing that inflation is already on the rise, despite tariffs not yet reaching their peak.
“Prices have already started to increase, although tariffs are not yet at their highest level. In February, inflation started to pick up again. Now we see the core inflation at 2.1 per cent, year to year. It used to be on a downward trend before that,” he explained.
His concerns about Edmontonian consumers were particularly pronounced.
“I’m more worried about Edmontonian consumers because we see that prices have already started to increase,” Colonescu reiterated. “In February, inflation started to pick up again. Now we see the core inflation at 2.1 per cent, year to year.
A family reaches for a Canadian-labeled yogurt brand over surrounding foreign options, illustrating a shift toward supporting local products amid rising trade tensions. Photo by Avery Chilton / Edmonton Edge. 
A promotional sign outside a Save-On-Foods store in Edmonton highlights weekly deals on Canadian-made products — part of a growing campaign urging consumers to support local brands amid a boycott of American goods tied to ongoing tariff tensions. Photo by Jana Al-Awar / Edmonton Edge. 
A large banner above the entrance of a Save-On-Foods location in Edmonton highlights the store’s Canadian ownership, appealing to national pride and encouraging shoppers to support domestic retailers amid widespread calls to boycott American products in response to tariffs. Photo by Jana Al-Awar / Edmonton Edge. 
A sign outside a Save-On-Foods location in Edmonton underscores the company’s Canadian ownership and long-standing presence, reflecting a growing local push to support domestic businesses amid ongoing boycotts of American products tied to tariff disputes. Photo by Jana Al-Awar / Edmonton Edge. 
Posters at the entrance of a Real Canadian Superstore in Edmonton promote the company’s Canadian identity and its offering of over 1,000 Canadian products, encouraging shoppers to buy local amid backlash against American imports tied to tariff tensions. Photo by Jana Al-Awar / Edmonton Edge. 
A sticker reading “Made in Canada from domestic and imported ingredients” reflects shifting trade dynamics. As tariffs impact supply chains, brands are emphasizing their Canadian roots to connect with shoppers. Photo by Avery Chilton / Edmonton Edge. 
A nearly sold-out shelf of Old Fashioned Maple Crest Canadian Syrup contrasts with a fully stocked display of the American brand Mrs. Butterworth’s — a reflection of growing consumer preference for homegrown products driven by both tariffs and national pride. Photo by Avery Chilton / Edmonton Edge. 
A shopper selects a Canadian-labeled toilet paper brand from the shelf, reflecting a growing preference for domestic products in response to ongoing trade tensions. Photo by Avery Chilton / Edmonton Edge. 
Even everyday items like butter are prominently labeled as Canadian, despite ongoing trade tariffs imposed by the U.S. Photo by Ryan Johnson / Edmonton Edge. 
Two residents in an Edmonton neighbourhood stage a small-scale protest against escalating tariffs, holding signs that highlight the financial strain on local communities and call for national solidarity. Photo by Jana Al-Awar / Edmonton Edge.
Local businesses brace for impact
For Edmonton businesses that rely on U.S. imports, the trade war could mean supply chain disruptions and increased operating costs.
“I’m not sure about Edmonton industries. I guess that they will do what everybody else does,” Colonescu said. “But I’m more concerned about Edmontonian consumers, because we see that prices have already started to increase, although tariffs are not yet at their highest level.”
Local small businesses that import products from the U.S. may struggle to absorb the additional costs. As tariffs drive prices higher, Edmonton consumers could be forced to cut back on discretionary spending, which may hurt the local economy.
Despite Edmonton’s ties to the oil and gas sector, its large public sector and dominant finance, insurance, and real estate industries, which mostly serve Canadian clients, could offer some insulation. Still, the Conference Board of Canada warns that a three-month tariff regime could shrink Edmonton’s real GDP by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2025 and reduce annual growth by 0.4 percentage points.
However, Zack Gizowski, a young Edmontonian, pointed out that while many are eager to buy Canadian, identifying truly local products isn’t always straightforward.
“I try as much as I can to support Canadian products. But I think they could be a little clearer as to what’s actually sourced in Canada and what is just kind of assembled in Canada from foreign produce or other materials,” he said.
Retaliatory tariffs: a long-term strategy
Canada has responded by imposing retaliatory tariffs on a range of U.S. goods, but Colonescu sees these measures as a long-term strategy rather than a quick fix.
“I see retaliatory tariffs as having more of a long-run purpose rather than a short-run one,” he said. “Like in any war, if you don’t stand up for yourself, you can’t hope for anything good coming your way in the long run.”
However, he acknowledged that in the short term, these tariffs could hurt Canadian consumers, including those in Edmonton, as much, if not more, than the initial tariffs imposed by the U.S.
While Colonescu focused on the economic fall out, another expert warned that the diplomatic fallout could prove just damaging.
Jeffrey Rice, professor of global politics at MacEwan University, said the damage to the cross-border relationship between the two countries is already evident and could extend for years to come.
“The tariffs have, already, significantly undermined trust and goodwill between Canada and the United States,” he said. “Particularly because it does not seem like there’s anything Canada can really do to avoid them.”
He said the original justification for the tariffs, border security concerns related to fentanyl, is not supported by data. “We know that the amount of fentanyl that is moving from Canada into the U.S. is pretty minimal.”
Even so, Rice said Canada has responded to U.S. demands.
“Canada has committed significant amounts of resources to bolster the border in-line with demands from the Trump administration,” he said.
He said the strain on Canada-U.S. relations is unlikely to ease anytime soon and could extend into the future.
“One of the potential results of this, and we are already seeing this play out with the boycott of American products, is an attempt to insulate Canada from the United States through a gradual decoupling of the two economies,” Rice said.
Trade war taking the world ‘back 200 years’
Colonescu emphasized that the decision by former U.S. president Donald Trump to impose tariffs goes against decades of global progress in reducing trade barriers.
“What President Trump is doing now is taking humankind back 200 years,” he said. “High tariffs and trade barriers… were the norm for thousands of years, and [during that time], the standard of living in all countries was much lower.”
He noted that global efforts to reduce trade barriers through agreements like GATT and the WTO increased efficiency and raised living standards. “It was only after efforts to lower these barriers through agreements like GATT and the WTO that we saw increased efficiency and a higher standard of living ever in human history,” he said.
Despite the ongoing trade tensions, Colonescu is not optimistic about a resolution anytime soon.
“Unfortunately, the only resolution that I can see is not going to come before the next U.S. elections in four years from now,” he said. “Fortunately, this is the last term of Donald
No resolution in sight
Trump, so I hope that the next one is going to be a person who knows more about economics and the history of economic thought and how things were before.”
In the meantime, Colonescu suggests that Canada should look to diversify its trade partners and reduce its dependence on American goods.
In the short term, Colonescu recommends that Canada reduce its reliance on American goods by seeking alternative suppliers. While achieving complete independence from U.S. imports is unrealistic, he believes that temporarily replacing them with alternative suppliers “makes perfect business sense.”
Edmonton consumers brace for higher prices
As the trade war drags on, Edmonton consumers may have to brace themselves for higher prices and uncertain economic conditions. The effects of these tariffs will not only be felt at the grocery store and at local cafés but could ripple through Edmonton’s economy, affecting everything from retail to real estate.
“As long as tariffs last, we should brace for some rocky road ahead of us, all of us,” Colonescu said.
